AUD/USD Forecast 2024 

Highlights:

• The AUD/USD decreased by 0.23% on Friday, closing the session at $0.68102.
• Investor attention will be drawn to the manufacturing PMI figures from Australia and

China, as well as the US manufacturing sector later in the session.

During the early Asian session on Tuesday, the AUD/USD pair declined slightly on the first trading day of 2024. The markets remain quiet in the first week of the year, 

with the pair currently trading around 0.6808, down 0.04% on the day.The Australian Judo Bank’s final Manufacturing PMI for December 2023 came in at 47.6, weaker than the expected 47.7 and the flash reading of 47.8. Additionally, the December Manufacturing Output Index dropped to a historically low reading of 45.5. The report indicates that the manufacturing sector in Australia has consistently eased throughout 2023 in response to monetary policy, with inflation aligned with the RBA’s target levels. The sector’s activity is gradually slowing down, and we estimate that this trend will continue through early 2024.

Short-Term Forcast 

The AUD/USD remained above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming bullish price signals.If the AUD/USD surpasses the $0.68500 pivot, the bulls will have a chance to reach the $0.68944 resistance level.

Economic indicators from China and the US will affect the demand for the AUD/USD.

However, if the AUD/USD falls below the $0.68096 support level, the $0.67286 support level will come into play.

The AUD/USD is expected to return to the $0.68500 handle based on a 14-period Daily RSI reading of 65.99. This reading suggests that the currency pair will enter overbought territory, which is typically indicated by an RSI scale above 70.

The near-term trends of AUD/USD will be influenced by economic indicators from China, the US ISM-Non-Manufacturing PMI, and the US Jobs Report. If China reports better-than-expected numbers and the US service sector and labor market numbers are weaker, policy divergence would favour the Aussie dollar.