Prop Firm Challenge Pass Probability Simulator

Enter a challenge’s rules and your own trading statistics. The simulator plays out 5,000 attempts with random wins and losses at your win rate and shows how often the profit target is reached before a loss limit or the time limit ends the attempt.

Reached the target
0%
Breached the daily limit
0%
Breached the maximum loss
0%
Ran out of time
0%
Median time to pass
n/a

Each run trades the same fixed risk with independent results. Real trading has streaks, varying position sizes and costs, so treat the result as a comparison between settings, not a forecast.

What the simulator shows

An evaluation is a race between the profit target and the loss limits. Two traders with the same win rate can have very different chances depending on how much they risk per trade and how the drawdown is measured. Changing one setting at a time shows which lever matters most for your trading.

Worked example

A trader wins 45% of trades, and the average win is 1.5 times the amount risked. Each trade is worth an average of 0.45 times 1.5 less 0.55, which is 0.125 times the risk. At 0.5% risk per trade that is about 0.06% per trade, so an 8% target needs roughly 130 trades on average. Raising the risk to 2% cuts the number of trades needed but makes a run of losses far more likely to reach a 10% maximum loss.

Reading the results

  • If the expected result per trade is zero or negative, no risk setting produces a reliable pass.
  • A high share of daily limit breaches means the risk per trade or the trades per day are too high for the daily limit.
  • A high share of timeouts means the edge is small relative to the target, which matters only where the firm sets a time limit.

Use the position size calculator to turn a risk percentage into lots or contracts, and read why traders fail prop firm challenges and published pass rates for context.

Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate is the pass probability?

It is accurate for the assumptions it makes: fixed risk per trade, independent results and the win rate and reward to risk you enter. Real trading has streaks, varying position sizes, spreads and commissions, and win rates change over time. Use the result to compare settings rather than as a forecast of a real attempt.

What risk per trade gives the best chance of passing?

It depends on your edge and the firm’s limits. With a positive edge, lower risk usually raises the pass rate but takes longer, which only matters where there is a time limit. Higher risk reaches the target sooner but makes a breach from a losing run more likely. Test a few settings in the simulator.

Why does trailing drawdown lower the pass rate?

A trailing maximum loss rises with the highest end of day balance, so profits made early do not add room below. A losing run after a good start can breach a trailing limit that a static limit would have absorbed. Many trailing limits stop at the starting balance, which the simulator also applies.

What win rate do I need to pass a prop firm challenge?

There is no single figure, because the reward to risk matters as much as the win rate. A 40% win rate with wins twice the size of losses has a positive edge, while a 60% win rate with wins half the size of losses does not. The simulator shows the expected result per trade for any combination.